Tesla: The Ultimate Sentiment Machine (Technical Analysis) (NASDAQ:TSLA) (2024)

By Levi at Elliott Wave Trader; Produced with Avi Gilburt.

Someone we consider among the preeminent fundamental analysts in the financial world affirms that Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock predominately trades on “sentiment and technicals." This is our own Lyn Alden. Now, if you dig a bit deeper, you will next discover that the methodology that allows you to track and properly project probable paths is actually available to all. However, the great majority have either had disappointing experiences with this form of analysis from other practitioners, or have not yet seen it’s true power and utility.

Take a quick trip with us as we share how we see TSLA at this current moment in time and then trace the likely targets we are outlining. I’ll first skip you right to the end, and then we will rewind to better understand the risk vs reward. Here’s the end: TSLA stock has the possibility to see $300 plus as the next important swing high in price.

And that’s where the disbelief and discord emerges. Give this piece 5 minutes of your time to review where we were at the end of January and what was projected. Then, how that analysis has played out. I believe that you will be pleasantly amazed.

A Brief Glance In The Rearview Mirror

Back on January 30th we shared this article with the readership, “Tesla: Looking For A 180 From $180.” After this came out, price did end up finding a low of sorts at $175 and then advanced in corrective fashion to nearly $206. From that article is this brief excerpt referencing the analysis from one of our leads, Zac Mannes:

"Here we can see that Zac Mannes is projecting the possibility that price will bounce correctively to perhaps the $200 - $210 level and turn down for a final low in the $171 area.

Suppose that someone has already placed a trade at the $180 area and is now managing that position. Should price bounce in a corrective type 3-wave structure and not take out resistance at the $200 - $210 zone, then a protective trailing stop would be advised so as to not turn a winner into a losing trade.”

So, what if this is exactly what happened to you? Now, stopped out and waiting to enter a new long position. What is the structure of price on the chart telling us?

The Structure Of Price Speaks

Lead analyst in StockWaves, Zac Mannes, shared this post with the membership this prior Friday:

“ZERO confirmation of a major bottom in TSLA yet, but the potential is there. The specific parameters we have laid out in the recent StockWaves WaveSetup allow for some extension lower and we barely have a nano 3up off the low... That said, I think it is a good exercise to map out an ideal projected path IF a low is to be seen here.

We are dealing with a larger EndingDiagonal if bullish and thus the potential wave [3] should be an ABC move like the move up for [1] off Jan 2023.

While an A-wave can occasionally be 5 up most of the time our default is to expect an abc... likewise with the a of that A. As such, TSLA might not get a clear 5 up 3 down of ANY degree off a low to confirm with a high probability in the traditional sense, that is why following closely (like we do in StockWaves) at smaller degrees and looking for alignment with the larger ideal path will be the key to navigating the start of this [3].

It is NOT an FSD situation... as Elon says FSD likely delayed until 2025+ and that tracks better with the C-wave of [3].” - Zac Mannes

Typically, StockWaves coverage is handled by our leads Zac Mannes and Garrett Patten. Every once in a blue moon, Avi Gilburt will weigh in on an intriguing setup. We have seen this happen a few times in TSLA over the past several months with excellent results. Will this repeat again? We don’t know, but here’s Avi’s current take on TSLA and its potential:

“This should be the final lows developing now in TSLA. Of course, we can still see a similar spike down as we did in NEM before its done, but this last leg down in the micro looks like an ending diagonal. A reversal over 183 will likely be a first signal of a bottom in place. And, take note of the continued divergence.

So, I assume a move over 183, along with the MACD crossover will likely be the first signals a low has been struck.” - Avi Gilburt.

Here’s yet one more interesting viewpoint from Jason Appel, another of our seasoned analysts. (A quick background on Jason: He is a financial markets veteran who started his career on the trading floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in the early 2000’s working as a top pit clerk for a high-volume broker. Since 2014, Jason has been studying and honing his skills in applying Elliott Wave analysis with ‘Fibonacci Pinball’ toward a variety of asset classes and trading instrument, including stocks, U.S. equity indexes, physical commodities and cryptocurrencies. He holds a Bachelor of Science in Economics from DePaul University.)

“Tesla is getting the lower low today with strong positive divergence in the MACD and now has a complete 5 down in C of (2). For strong evidence of completion to this decline, we need price to turn up and resoundingly take out the Feb highs, $205.30.

I got filled on a tranche this morning” (from March 13th) - Jason Appel.

(I myself got filled on a 50% position at $163.65 late last week.)

But, What If You’re All Wrong?

Sure, that’s obviously possible. We view the markets from a probabilistic vantage point. They are fluid and dynamic in nature. We must adapt to this flow and take a different tack when necessary. However, all things remaining the same in this current structure of price, TSLA is likely either near a very important low or has already struck said low.

Should price break below $152 and see continuation lower then it’s more probable that something else is playing out and we may stop out of these new positions. Conversely, if this scenario plays out as drawn up, we will update the next resistance levels overhead and raise support as this progresses. Remember, $183 is the next main level to be conquered.

You May Be Skeptical

And, that’s OK. Even skeptics can become successful beneficiaries of this methodology. I would venture to say that many of our more than 8,000 current members were at one time such skeptics. What caused the shift in their opinion? They saw with their own eyes the power and utility of Elliott Wave Theory when correctly practiced. When you see this in real-time, it truly is a sight to behold.

TSLA Is At An Important Juncture

We are able to identify a favorable risk vs. reward here at the moment for Tesla stock. If this setup is a bust, we will simply move on to the next, as there are a myriad of them in the markets at any one time.

Yes, there are nuances to the analysis. Once familiar with our methodology, our members discover a powerful ally on their side to provide guidance and risk management in their trading/investing.

There are many ways to analyze and track stocks and the market they form. Some are more consistent than others. For us, this method has proved the most reliable and keeps us on the right side of the trade much more often than not. Nothing is perfect in this world, but for those looking to open their eyes to a new universe of trading and investing, why not consider studying this further? It may just be one of the most illuminating projects you undertake.

STOCK WAVES: Where fundamental analysis meets technical analysis for highest-probability investment opportunities! Get leading Elliott Wave analysis from our team, along with fundamental insights and macro analysis from top author Lyn Alden Schwartzer.

"Stockwaves is my bread and butter, and that's only catching maybe 10% of the charts they throw out! I had 7-10x+ trades with SW last year, and dozens more that were "slackers" (LOL) with "only" 3-4-5x returns. Amazing!" (Nicole)

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